SEOUL - Call him merciless, a dictator, a Stalinist or any name you want, but
North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's enemies now want him safely in control
after suffering an apparently debilitating stroke or cerebral hemorrhage four
weeks ago.
That's because no one has any solid clue what would happen to North Korea, to
the Korean Peninsula, or to northeast Asia if Kim were to die or be unable to
govern and a power vacuum were to ensue after 63 years of harsh one-man rule
first by Kim's father, Kim Il-sung, and then by the Dear Leader, carefully
groomed to take over after his father's death in 1994.
Just about any scenario is conceivable, and any configuration in the power
structure imaginable, as analysts try to assess the
possible impact of the loss of a man whom US President George W Bush was wont
to revile as "a pygmy", a "tyrant", and probably a few other choice names.
If Kim is not bombarded with get-well or at least stay-alive wishes from his
enemies, that may only be because North Korean officials stoutly deny there's
anything wrong with the man. Diplomats at North Korea's United Nations mission
have hung up on inquiring calls if they answer the phone at all, and Kim
Yong-nam, the North's second-ranking leader as chairman of the presidium of the
Supreme People's Assembly, has been quoted as saying there's "no problem".
Analysts say Kim Jong-il's non-appearance at a parade on Tuesday marking the
60th anniversary of the formal founding of the Democratic People's Republic of
Korea three years after Kim Il-sung returned from near the Siberian city of
Khabarovsk aboard a Soviet merchant ship may not in itself be terribly
significant; he often fails to show up at huge events.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS)seems certain, however, that
Kim is partially paralyzed after an operation by Chinese doctors but reasonably
alert - information that appears to have come from NIS sources in Beijing.
The latest word from one official, quoted by South Korea's Yonhap news agency,
is that "Kim can brush his teeth without help" - though the government "is
still closely watching Kim's health and other situations in North Korea in
anticipation of an emergency there".
The problem is, if dealing with North Korea now seems difficult, things could
get a lot worse, in the view of analysts in Seoul and in Washington, if Kim
Jong-il were to leave the scene. All of Kim's three sons at one time or another
have been mentioned as possibilities, but none of them has had anything
remotely like the long apprenticeship that Kim had to serve in the government,
the party and, finally, the armed forces before his father's death.
When Kim Il-sung died of a heart attack in July 1994, Kim Jong-il, now 66 (then
52) was already commander of the armed forces, the center of power. He assumed
the title of chairman of the national defense commission three years later and,
when he's not called "Dear Leader" or "Great Leader", is formally addressed as
"chairman" in deference to his authority over the military structure in a
system dominated by his policy of songun (military first). He also holds
the title of general secretary of the Workers' Party.
By contrast, 27-year-old Kim Jong-chol, the second son, was recently put in
charge of the Department of Propaganda and Agitation of the Workers' Party - a
responsible post but nowhere near the level from which a future leader would
ordinarily vault to the highest position of power.
The first son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, may have disqualified himself after he was
stopped at Japan's Narita Airport seven years ago carrying a Dominican passport
and explaining he wanted to take his family to Tokyo Disneyland - not exactly
the preferred vacation spot for a future North Korean leader. After living for
a spell in the gambling enclave of Macau, however, Jong-nam recently has
returned to Pyongyang, suggesting his father may have plans for him.
Third son Kim Jong-un, 24, was assumed to be too young, but his physical
resemblance to his father is seen as giving him an outside chance, especially
since middle brother Jong-chol is rumored to appear "effeminate", a possible
euphemism for homosexual.
The fear now is that the generals whom Kim has assiduously coddled, rewarded,
intimidated, bullied and punished would vie with one another to take over if
their Dear Leader were unable to carry on. Some observers, with little if any
real evidence, already believe a coterie of generals is in power in his name -
and would love to rule behind the cover of any one of his sons as a front man
for their own maneuvering and greater ambitions.
"Clearly there would be a lot of debate about policy," said Bruce Klinger, a
former US Central Intelligence Agency official and now analyst with the
Heritage Foundation in Washington. Kim's passing "would resurrect speculation
about factions", he believes.
The view among defense analysts and officials in Seoul is that some military
leaders in the North advocate a considerably harder line than that pursued
under Kim Jong-il. They're said to disfavor the North's agreement to get rid of
its nuclear facilities and are behind the North's stonewalling on the protocol
demanded by Washington for verification as a precondition for removal of North
Korea from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Kim Jong-il, however, may not want to keep up the tough front despite the move
to restart the development of the nuclear program at the Yongbyon complex. Kim
Yong-nam, while dismissing reports of the leader's illness, also held out the
hope of overcoming differences over the protocol - a view that prompted the
White House to say, "We can hopefully continue to work to bring them into
compliance with what they agreed to do."
Without the Dear Leader's steadying influence, all bets for the future are off.
Analysts say a power struggle in Pyongyang could spark civil war in which
hundreds of thousands of refugees would make for China and Russia to the north
or into South Korea.
Another possibility is that the military clique that controls the country's 1.1
million troops could increase its grip, strengthen dictatorial rule and get
even tougher with South Korea as well as the US and Japan.
It is against the background of such concerns that South Korea's conservative
President Lee Myung-bak has called emergency meetings to discuss what to do in
case of a power shift.
These meetings have assumed urgency since North Korean rhetoric has blasted Lee
as a "traitor" and refused to go on with North-South dialogue until he endorses
the joint communiques that emerged from the June 2000 and October 2007
North-South summits.
Lee has not repudiated the statements but has left no doubt of what he thinks
of his two presidential predecessors, Kim Dae-jung, who won the Nobel Peace
Prize after the 2000 summit with Kim Jong-il, and Roh Moo-hyun, who carried out
Kim Dae-jung's policy of reconciliation.
It may be because of worries over what's happening in Pyongyang that Lee is
staying in the Blue House, the center of presidential power, over the Chusok
holidays beginning this weekend.
For all the vituperations, South Korean officials seem confident that Kim
Jong-il would not take drastic or unpredictable action against the South. "It's
a case of preferring to deal with the enemy you know," said a military source.
An armed forces official has said there's no sign of unusual military moves
north of the demilitarized zone, but, if Kim were to depart, "we would go on
full alert".
Journalist Donald Kirk has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of
forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years.
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